Statistical evidence that Messi’s vision is the best

Often statistics are not successful in giving insights about some particular footballing abilities. Sometimes they are pretty straightforward and sometimes they need a strong context, in order not to be misleading. One particular aspect not so easy to put in statistical terms is a player’s playmaking ability and vision, an ability in which Barcelona’s Lionel Messi is particularly ‘gifted’. Here I try to give some statistical insights on how good his vision is and how it compares to other players.

Based on all the stats currently provided in football, those who give information about playmaking ability use ‘chances created’ as the parameter. For a player’s vision, the parameter used is ‘through balls’. Through balls are defined as “an attempted/accurate pass between opposition players in their defensive line to find an onrushing teammate (running through on goal)” [example image 1]. Hence, a combination of chances created and through balls enables us to judge a players’ ‘vision’ and his ability to create chances for his teammates.

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Image 1 – Through ball example.

Note that the total number of chances created is not necessarily a measure of their playmaking or vision skills, since many chances can be created by a ‘simple’ pass exchanged between players and also by corners, free kick passes, etc.

Charts 1 and 2 give the total and through ball chances created in the Liga and in the Champions League since the 2009/2010 season. Messi tops both charts but yet this doesn’t give justice to his incredible vision, which we have been witnessing regularly for years now. A fairer impression is achieved when looking at the number of chances created by through balls, in which Messi is simply far beyond the rest.

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Chart 1 – Chances created in the Liga from 09/10 to 15/16 (total).

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Chart 2 – Chances created in the Champions League from 09/10 to 14/15 (total).

Aside from being a measure of a player’s vision and ability to break defensive lines, through balls are also an indicator of creating more valuable chances for your teammates. This can be inferred also from looking at chart 3. Here we can see that Messi’s chances created by through balls have a conversion rate almost twice as high as any other type of chances, meaning they are easier to be converted into goals.

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Chart 3 – Chances created and assists for Messi in the Liga (09/10 to 15/16) and in the Champions League (09/10 to 14/15).

To give some further insights on how good Messi’s (and also other players’) vision is and take into account that various players have played different number of minutes in different competitions, I made 5 charts. These charts show the relationship between total chances created and chances created by through balls in the Liga (Charts 4, 5 and 6) and in the Champions League (Charts 7 and 8), both in absolute numbers and in numbers converted per 90 minutes of play.

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Chart 4 – Chances created in the Liga from 09/10 to 15/16 (total).

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Chart 5 – Chances created (per 90 minutes) in the Liga from 09/10 to 15/16 (total).

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Chart 6 – Chances created (per 90 minutes) in the Liga from 09/10 to 15/16 (individual seasons).

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Chart 7 – Chanes created in the Champions League from 09/10 to 14/15 (total).

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Chart 8 – Chances created (per 90 minutes) in the Champions League from 09/10 to 14/15 (total).

There is really not much room for argument, Messi dominates in both absolute and relative charts. These charts also give credit to many other players, especially to Francesco Totti and Andrey Arshavin, although their relative through ball numbers are not representative, since they include a relatively small number of total chances created.

Many players who feature in these charts have a high tendency to play accurate through balls for their teammates. Here we can mention Xavi, Iniesta, Robben, Aimar, Cesc Fàbregas, Özil, Reyes, Nolito, etc. Ángel Di María seems to be the player positionally closer to Messi in this aspect of the game.

One particular that scales up Messi’s playmaking ability is the fact that, unlike all the other above-mentioned players, often he is also the receiver of these passes (and arguably the best goalscorer around). So, we can expect even higher numbers from Messi if he concentrates his game more in creating chances. Maybe this is how the ‘future’ Messi might be.

5 comments
  1. Excellent. Curious, how did you compile the key pass/chances created into Conversion rates for others?

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    • BARÇA NÚMEROS said:

      Hi and thanks! I am not sure if I correctly understand your question. Here, I have calculated just the conversion rates only for Messi (it would require a very large amount of time to do it for other players also). And the idea behind this was to illustrate that chances created by through ball are easier to be converted into goals than other type of chances.

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  2. Leo said:

    How many through ball assists does messi have and what’s the closest number to his among all popular players listed (ozil, Cristiano, Xavi, Cesc and iniesta)

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  3. Renato Armandola said:

    I have just come across your website thanks to the Italian http://www.ultimouomo.com and I am very happy I did. Your research is quite thorough and interesting.

    However, I must say, in this piece about through balls I find that you should have at least analysed the data from the four major European leagues. In other words you had the choice of looking just at the players who played in Spain, or to look at the whole of Europe. You chose to mix the two: La Liga and every player in the Champions League. It seems hardly fair for example to say that Totti or Arshavin created a small number of chances, without looking at their domestic stats.

    Maybe you could do a new post on the player who created the highest number of assists in Europe…

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